4. Statistics & Probability

The Statistics & Probability topic is the syllabus topic (out of 5) that has the least amount of HL content. The suggested teaching hours for SL is 27 hours and it's only a few hours more for HL at 33 hours. The additional content for HL consists of Bayes' theorem and further material on discrete & contrinuous random variables. Discrete probability distributions (including binomial) and the normal distribution (a continuous distribution) are included in the SL core syllabus content.

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downloadable tests & quizzes for teaching units in Stats & Probability

Changes compared to previous Maths HL-SL syllabusses:
Previously, linear correlation of bivariate data was in Maths SL, but not Maths HL. WIth linear correlation/regression in the SL content - and with Analysis SL a subset of Analysis HL - both SL and HL students need to cover it. Other changes include the addition of the following syllabus items:
SL 4.1*  reliability of data sources and bias in sampling; sampling techniques: simple random, convenience, systematic, quota and stratified methods
SL 4.2*  determining whether data may be normally distributed by symmetry of a box and whiskers plot
SL 4.10  equation of regression line of x on y; use equation for prediction purposes and know when it’s reliable
Another change is that the Poisson distribution has been removed; it's not in SL or HL.

Statistics & Probability - syllabus overview
Syllabus item numbers are in brackets.

SL - Stats & Probability

SL core (AA & AI)

data sampling & populations (4.1)

descriptive statistics (4.2, 4.3)

linear regression (4.4)

probability of events (4.5, 4.6)

probability distributions (4.7, 4.8, 4.9)


linear regression (4.10)

further conditional probability (4.11)

normal distribution extended (4.12)

HL - Stats & Probability


Bayes’ theorem (4.13)

discrete & continuous random variables (4.14)

 Exercise Sets, Quizzes & Tests

Quiz on 'probabilities of events' that is suitable for both SL and HL students. Quiz has 7 questions and GDC is allowed on all. Solution key (worked solutions) available below.

Solution key (worked solutions) for above SL-HL quiz on 'probabilities of events'.

syllabus content on test: probability rules for: combined events, mutually exclusive events & independent events; conditional probability; discrete probability distributions; continuous probability distributions; expected value (mean), variance & standard deviation for discrete & continuous distributions; binomial distribution; normal distribution. Worked solutions below.

Worked solutions for HL Probability Test above.

Selected Pages

Probability distributions (TN) 25 August 2021

go to teaching materialsSyllabus content (* SL content shared with Applications & Interpretation course)SL 4.7* Concept...

Linear regression (TN) 26 July 2021

A more precise title for this syllabus content would be linear correlation of bivariate data - or, alternatively, bivariate...

Probability of events (TN) 10 February 2021

■ downloadable teaching materials for probabilities of eventsThe syllabus content on the probabilities of events overlaps...

4E. Probability introduction (SN) 13 July 2020

… It is remarkable that this science, which originated in the consideration of games of chance, should become the most...

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